Autocrats' Survival Strategies

Abstract

What is the effect of budget volatility on an autocrat’s propensity to form an inclusive cabinet? Because budgets vary over time, leaders face a dynamic tradeoff between today’s choice of cabinet composition and the likelihood of surviving tomorrow. We study this problem by developing a unified theoretical and empirical model of autocratic survival, where a farsighted autocrat must decide whether or not to adopt inclusive cabinets given today’s payoffs, the likelihood of being overthrown, and the expected evolution of the budget.

Publication
Working Paper
Date
Links